Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia is raising fears of a wider regional conflict as Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting armed opposition groups.
Ethiopian army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula has blamed what he described as the country’s “historical and contemporary adversaries” for contributing to the unrest. He accused Eritrea of serving as a link between outside powers, including Sudan and Egypt, and armed groups operating inside Ethiopia. All three countries have denied the allegations.
The accusations come as fighting spreads across Tigray and into neighboring Amhara and Afar. Federal forces and armed opposition groups have been battling for control of strategic areas, reviving concerns over the fragile peace agreement that ended the devastating 2020–2022 Tigray war.
Relations between Ethiopia and the three countries were already strained. Ethiopia and Egypt remain divided over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Nile water security, while Ethiopia and Sudan have traded accusations of supporting armed groups.
Relations with Eritrea have also deteriorated sharply, partly amid tensions surrounding Ethiopia’s push for greater access to the Red Sea.
The latest escalation has increased concerns that Ethiopia’s internal conflict could extend beyond its borders. Fighting has reached areas close to Eritrea and Sudan, while instability in Afar could threaten important transport routes connecting landlocked Ethiopia with Djibouti.
The diplomatic crisis has since deepened further. Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats, while Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic relations. The African Union has urged Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise restraint and resolve their disputes through dialogue.
With multiple armed groups involved and tensions between neighboring governments increasing, the renewed conflict is raising concerns that instability inside Ethiopia could develop into a broader crisis across the Horn of Africa.