Oil could climb to $100 a barrel if tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is not quickly restored after US and Israeli strikes on Iran, analysts warn.
Vessels are steering clear of the key chokepoint as Tehran cautions ships against entering the waterway and insurers withdraw coverage.
At the open Sunday night, US West Texas Intermediate crude jumped as much as 12% and Brent surged 13% before easing. WTI later traded up 4.8% at $70.26 a barrel, while Brent was 5.1% higher at $76.58.
“The key question is when vessels re-establish export flows,” said Alan Gelder of Wood Mackenzie.
Roughly 15 million barrels of crude pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical oil transit route between Iran, Oman, and the UAE. After the strikes, several ships reportedly came under fire, escalating risks in the corridor.
With insurers pulling back and operators avoiding the route, analysts say prolonged disruption could send prices above $100. ING warned Brent could reach $140 in a worst-case scenario involving extended supply losses.
Although OPEC+ plans to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day from April, additional supply may remain stranded if Gulf exports cannot move through Hormuz. Analysts estimate a sustained halt could remove 8–10 million barrels per day from global markets, even accounting for limited alternative routes.