Advertising could evolve into a massive revenue engine for OpenAI, potentially generating more than $25 billion a year by 2030 and posing a meaningful challenge to Google, according to new estimates from a leading tech analyst.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney said OpenAI has a credible path to reaching that scale if it executes effectively on building and expanding its advertising business. In a note to investors, Mahaney argued that OpenAI could generate several billion dollars in ad revenue as early as 2026, with growth accelerating to more than $25 billion annually by the end of the decade.
The forecast follows OpenAI’s recent announcement that ads will begin appearing for free and Go-tier users of ChatGPTin the coming weeks. The company also outlined its advertising principles, including clear labeling of ads and a commitment not to share user conversations with advertisers, aiming to balance monetization with user trust.
Mahaney’s outlook is based on several factors: the expected global scale of ChatGPT over the next few years, the proven ability of high-intent performance marketing platforms to monetize user attention, and the sheer size of the digital advertising market. If OpenAI succeeds, he suggests, it could emerge as a significant new force in online advertising—one with the potential to reshape competitive dynamics in a space long dominated by Google.