Russia is grappling with a serious demographic crisis, and officials are warning of a potential "population wipeout."
In 2024, births decreased to 1.22 million — the lowest since 1999 — while deaths increased by 3.3% to 1.82 million, continuing the trend of population decline. Rosstat projects births could fall further to 1.14 million by 2027.
Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova has warned that by 2046, the number of women of childbearing age will fall from 34 million to 27 million. Despite government efforts — including cash bonuses and tax breaks — birth rates remain stubbornly low.
President Vladimir Putin has called population growth essential for “ethnic survival,” urging women to have larger families. Still, Labor Minister Anton Kotyakov told Putin that nearly 11 million new workers will be needed by 2030 to replace retirees and meet rising labor demands — a goal made harder by low productivity and shrinking workforce numbers.
The war in Ukraine has worsened the crisis through battlefield deaths and a growing brain drain. Substance abuse and alcoholism are also pushing up mortality rates. To fill labor gaps, businesses have turned to retirees and even teenagers, pushing wages higher and fueling inflation. After a strong 2023, Russia’s economy is now teetering on recession, according to government officials.
Critics say the Kremlin’s decision to stop publishing monthly birth and death stats reflects mounting anxiety. Demographer Alexei Raksa called it a “clear sign of failed demographic policy.” Meanwhile, despite these internal challenges, Russia is reportedly boosting troop numbers near Zerbaikan, a former Soviet republic — stirring fears of renewed regional tensions.