Michael O'Leary warned that jet fuel supplies could come under pressure if the Iran war continues into May, with 10% to 25% of Ryanair’s fuel potentially at risk during May and June. He said no major disruption is expected immediately, but prolonged conflict could begin to affect European supply chains.
He also pointed out that jet fuel prices have become highly volatile, doubling since the war began and rising significantly faster than crude oil. Although Ryanair has hedged around 80% of its fuel needs until next year, the remaining exposure leaves the airline vulnerable to further price increases.
Despite the risks, O’Leary said the airline plans to continue operating and growing through the uncertainty, with most of its fuel sourced from regions like the US, Norway, and West Africa rather than the Middle East.
At the same time, travel behavior is already shifting. He noted that many European travelers are avoiding routes linked to the Middle East and are instead booking trips closer to home, with destinations like Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece seeing increased demand over the Easter period.
He added that while summer travel plans have not yet fully adjusted, they could change if the conflict continues, and warned that airfares may rise as a result.