Tesla’s robotaxi program is running into a challenge that hype can’t overcome: real-world performance. According to NHTSA filings, the Austin fleet recorded 14 crashes over roughly 800,000 miles—about one incident every 57,000 miles.
By comparison, Tesla’s own statistics suggest human drivers average one minor crash every 229,000 miles, implying the autonomous system is performing significantly worse than the drivers it aims to replace.
Notably, every crash occurred while a trained safety monitor was seated in the passenger seat, prepared to intervene. Incidents included a 17-mph collision with a stationary object and a low-speed impact while reversing into a pole, raising questions about the system’s real-world reliability.
Transparency has also become an issue. Tesla reported the crashes to regulators but redacted detailed narratives, labeling them confidential business information. Several incidents between December and January ranged from collisions with buses to minor reversing accidents. In contrast, Waymo, which reports operating more than 127 million fully driverless miles, publishes detailed incident summaries and says it has reduced injury-causing crashes compared to human drivers.
Critics argue that limited disclosure makes independent safety evaluation difficult. Concerns grew further when Tesla revised the classification of a prior crash months later, upgrading it from property damage to an incident involving hospitalization.
Despite these concerns, Tesla is pressing ahead. CEO Elon Musk has announced plans to expand robotaxi service to seven cities in the first half of 2026, with broader U.S. coverage by year-end. The expansion comes as NHTSA investigates the Austin fleet following reports and videos of vehicles driving improperly.
With federal regulators holding the authority to intervene if safety defects are identified, scrutiny is likely to intensify. The broader debate now centers on whether Tesla’s autonomous technology is ready for large-scale deployment and how regulators will respond to the current performance data.